The Russian Invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. The conflict, which began in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimea region of southeastern Ukraine, was expected to be a short one.
According to the Imperial War Museum, Russia likely believed the conflict would end within ten days. Despite this, we are now in the fourth year of this conflict as Ukraine, bolstered by $175 billion of U.S. aid, has held out against the Russians. Recent events, however, have changed the situation drastically.
A draft of a peace deal arranged by the U.S. and Russia has been proposed to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the 28-point plan was rejected by Ukraine, with critics saying that the plan was, according to ABC, “perceived as pro-Russian”.
Concessions of the deal would include the loss of the Donbas territory, of which Russia currently controls 85% of, according to the BBC. Additionally, heavy restrictions would be placed on the size of the Ukrainian army. Ukraine has pushed back against both points, and according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has rejected territorial concessions. Russia has also demanded that Ukraine end its bid for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership, which Kyiv has rejected.
As is typical for two nations embroiled in violent conflict, Russia and Ukraine do not agree on how the war should end. According to the BBC, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, stated in an interview that “either we liberate these territories [the Donbas] by force, or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories.” According to the same source, however, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out ceding territory. Leverage, therefore, is the target of the diametrically opposed parties. With an advantage in the war effort would come diplomatic strength, and the ability to end the war on that side’s terms. On the battlefield, however, little opportunity has presented itself.
In something reminiscent of World War I’s artillery-dominated trench warfare, both the Ukrainian and Russian armies are, at present, bogged down. According to the CSIS, there exists a “15-20 kilometer kill zone between the two armies.” The culprit? The drone. According to the same source, “[the] situation is reinforced by drone warfare, which has made meaningful advances nearly impossible for either side. Heavy machinery, tanks, or troops cannot operate without the risk of facing a near instant destruction.” This stalemate benefits Ukraine in some ways. Namely, their role as the defending side.
According to the same source, Ukraine has managed to stabilize the frontline through layered fortifications and pre-sighted fire zones that render enemy attempts unsuccessful or extremely slow. This defense system functions as a meat grinder for Russian troops. In fact, Russian losses are now much higher than Ukraine’s and reach thousands of soldiers weekly.
That said, the situation remains bleak. The CSIS reports that Russia has accelerated production of artillery shells and the refurbishment of Soviet Union-era military stockpiles. Ukraine and the European Union have accelerated production as well, but are not expected to match Russia until well into 2026, according to the CSIS. Ukraine, therefore, relies greatly on U.S. aid.
As Ukraine remains unwilling to sign a U.S.-brokered peace deal, President Donald Trump’s support for Ukraine has wavered. According to the CSIS, “U.S. support for Ukraine has shifted from piecemeal arms deliveries to a focus on negotiating a peace deal with major concessions from Ukraine.” Were such an eventuality to occur, the European Union (EU) would have to take charge of Ukraine’s defense. Should that happen before the EU is prepared industrially and militarily, the Ukrainian army could face catastrophe.
All this makes the ongoing negotiations of utmost importance. As Kyiv and Moscow refuse to accept terms beneficial to the opposing side, however, the fragility of Ukraine’s situation begins to show itself diplomatically and militarily.
